It’s March 19 2020, as a direct result of the demon Coronavirus (officially termed by WHO as Covid-19), India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi goes live on TV in order to address this nation’s billion-plus population about the gravity of this crisis.

Like most of my fellow countrymen, my eyes are glued to the TV screen. I become fully focused on what is happening as these events unfurl in front of my eyes. The seriousness of this information triggers umpteen unanswered questions in my head.

Prime Minister Modi announces that there was to be a national lockdown that was to last only 21 days.

Unfortunately, it is quite evident that the Coronavirus will be with us for many more months to come.

This same story is repeated through every country in the world, particularly in Western Europe, Brazil and the USA.

As I follow the hourly news reports we could clearly see, country after country, global government authorities issuing strict regulatory guidelines; telling their citizens to remain indoors, wear masks, maintain physical distancing and follow a strict hand-washing regime.

Nobody could have imagined what was about to happen next.

Everything seemed so uncertain, chaotic and scary, particularly in a country like ours, with such a gigantic population and one, which has a high concentration of inhabitants in the major conurbations [e.g. Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata].

It seemed to me quite evident that the inexorable march of this multi-headed Coronavirus monster had indeed invaded every level of our society, that it was here to stay and that it was also intent on wreaking havoc.

I had this recurrent nightmare where this spherical shaped Coronavirus monster, with its surface covered with spikes, rolling towards me like the mythological ten-headed demon King Ravana.

India was now staring in the face of an unprecedented crisis, the likes of which the country had never experienced before. Needless to say, the Coronavirus is the greatest challenge that the Indian government has ever had to face in the modern era.

The first question that I asked myself was "Do we have a sound healthcare system--supported by a large enough number of hospitals, doctors, nurses and other staff in place in order to meet the anticipated demand of such a large populous?”

The realisation that the answer to the question was a resounding "No!” sent chills down my spine. The complete inadequacy of our nation’s healthcare infrastructure in times like this heightened my worries.

Bearing in mind that the number of beds per 10,000 people is used as an indicator of health infrastructure I am going to examine the facts.

According to the Human Development Report 2020, out of 167 countries, India ranks 155th when it comes to availability of beds per 10,000 people.

The only other countries with fewer beds per 10,000 head of population than India are Uganda, Senegal, Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Nepal and Guatemala.

India’s failure to expand its health infrastructure in line with its growth in population has resulted in a severe shortage of hospital beds as well as other infrastructure necessities such as operating theatres, ICUs [intensive care units] and medical and support staff. Countries with a high “human development index” category have about 25 to 50 doctors and 25 to 35 beds per 10,000 of its population respectively.1*
In the next category down on this index indicate that the availability of beds ranges from 10 to 45 and doctors ranges from 15 to 40 per 10,000 of population respectively.

India ranks in the bottom category as it has only 5 beds and 8.6 doctors per 10,000 head of population respectively. The numbers of trained doctors in India per head of population is pitifully insufficient to meet its needs.2*

Although there is now a greater focus in India on training more doctors, this has not been matched by a concomitant increase in hospital infrastructure.

According to the latest data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), India with its 5 beds per 10,000 head of population (up from 4 beds in 2009), ranks amongst the lowest of all the OECD countries surveyed.

In contrast to the above, China has 43 hospital beds and the United States with 28 hospital beds per 10,000 people respectively.

Last year’s government data showed there were about 714,000 hospital beds in India, up from about 540,000 in 2009. This increase in bed numbers does not come anywhere near satisfying the increased demands from India’s burgeoning population.

According to India’s chronic underfunding in healthcare led to the hospitals becoming quickly overwhelmed with many people unable to gain access to hospital treatment.

The Indian government spends an estimated 1.5% of its GDP on public health, up from 1.3% in 2015 and 1% in the1980s.

Despite this increase in investment in healthcare, India still ranks among the world’s lowest in the percentage allocation of its nation’s GDP on healthcare.

It is no wonder that people are struggling to find hospital beds during this pandemic, and therefore, as the number of Covid-19 cases soared in major cities such as Mumbai and Delhi, the healthcare system ran out of beds, doctors and nurses. As the disease spreads its tentacles in every part of India the hospital resources in our cities started drying up one by one.

Recently, when one of my friends got infected with Covid-19, her family had to run from pillar to post in search of a hospital bed. In the end, she was fortunate to find a place for herself in one of the city hospitals. But then I wonder, how many people are as lucky as her?

This pandemic has certainly exposed India to be the grossly overpopulated country that it is. We have outstretched our resources and no amount of developmental advances will alleviate fast enough the poverty caused by our increasing population. The mere survival of this surplus mass of Indian humanity is hampering our progress.

As a result of advances in artificial intelligence and automation in order to manufacture the widgets of our global society the world needs less of the unspecialised labor which India has to offer.

Societal changes, access to universal broadband, and better education will help to improve the quality of life of our poorer citizens but without the “demographic dividend” India could miss out on the miraculous development seen in other parts of the world.

If we do not decrease our population, this enormous residual mass of non-productive people will always burden our society.

Surely we must greatly reduce our numbers if we are ever to attain a better quality of life for all.

Now, the challenge is up to us. We must do something about it! We must reduce our population.

SOURCES OF INFORMAITON
1* REUTERS : May 25, 2020, More Patients than beds in Mumbai as India faces surge in virus cases. Abhirup Roy Devjyot Ghoshal, Aditya Kalra
2*. Times of India: Dec 17, 2020, 5 hospital beds/10k population: India ranks 155th in 167, Rema Nagarajan.